NFL handicapping: what you need to know to bet on the NFL

NFLbestline.com Handicapping tips / rules

Here at NFLbestline.com, we offer a wide variety of selections including over / under and point spread guaranteed lock picks. The main body of the site also offers a unique format which allows you to make quick and easy comparisons in order for you to find the best value for your wagering dollar. We would also like to offer you some insight in to the world of professional football handicapping and wagering. Please take a few moments to read the following to give you some helpful hints into some of the angles utilized by the Pro’s who successfully turn a profit each year.

Some popular and accepted angles are:

Injury Report

This NFL injury report is published each week and put up on the NFLbestline.com site approximately each Wednesday for the weekend games. Check the report each week to find out which key players aren’t going to be available to their team for the upcoming weekend as this obviously can have a huge impact. It’s also a good idea to keep track from week to week or to print out the reports each week to determine who is going on the disabled list and who is coming off. These roster changes can obviously have a huge impact on the wagering and the setting of the lines. Also, don’t just look for star players either because the best value comes from reading between the lines and knowing which guys in the trenches are the most valuable to their respective teams.

Weather Reports

Never underestimate the impact the weather can have on the outcome of a game. This can be especially helpful in late fall and early winter as some of our best total (over / under) plays have been derived from anticipated poor weather which obviously slants the game to a ball control contest with lower scoring. Poor field conditions can also contribute to poor footing for field goal kickers which translates into a few misses which drives the score down. Again, keeping in mind the oddsmakers are also aware of these angles and sometimes adjust too far. Nice weather in December in a city which is usually cold can offer a juicy over play at a relatively low number making for a five star play. As you can see, there is no magic formula you have to put in some time and do some work however the rewards are worth it.

Short Week Angle

A popular angle amongst football pundits is the short week phenomena. This centers around teams that play a big Monday night game coming back to play the following Sunday. Their difficulties seem to be a combination of the hype of the big “Monday nighter” combined with the reduced time for preparation for the following Sunday’s game but these teams tend to struggle. Another thought to the poor performance may have to do with reduced time for minor injuries to heal from the week before. Follow this angle closely and you may find yourself in a position to reap the rewards.

Past History

Although not a huge favorite of us here at NFLbestline.com, many a handicapper swear by previous records and all the other juicy stats that go along with this angle. There are many publications that produce pages and pages of statistical information concerning whatever upcoming game you are considering a play on. They offer such things as records between the two teams dating back to the beginning of the league, how a team has faired coming off of a short rest (see above), how two quarterbacks have faired against each other over their career etc. Some of these stats pages even trace accomplishments all the way back to College.

Dome Teams / Grass Teams

A very debatable issue among football handicappers concerns the issue of surface. In the many different stadiums throughout the NFL, you can find a number of different playing surfaces and environments in which teams play. Certain teams get labeled as being able to handle one surface or environment better than the other. An example of this is St. Louis being labeled a dome team over the past few years due to their apparent appreciation for the controlled environment reflected in their positive record. Other notables would be the Green Bay Packers at home, it just seems that teams coming into Greenbay during October – December have trouble with that cold weather while the boys from GB flourish in it. A perfect example of a team that has trouble in the cold would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, notoriously touted as a warm weather team. Our suggestion with this angle is to be extremely careful when evaluating and not getting caught up in the hype of a situation. Make sure your decisions are based on fact and biases are truly biases rather than a particular set of circumstances.

All of the above must be taken with a grain of salt as we are not the first to discover some of these angles and the people that make the odds are also extremely savvy. Be aware of too much adjustment to a line. For example, a line normally favoring a team by 7 is reported to be without their starting quarterback. This may cause a drastic swing in the line sometimes as much as the full 7 points. What you have to determine is if that is too much of a shift in the line. Is the starting quarterback worth a full touchdown in your mind. Make your determination and then make your plays accordingly. Be mindful of too much adjustment to the line and attempt to jump in and capitalize on the other side in these circumstances. This can be magnified in big game situations such as Monday night action or playoff’s as more media attention is focused on this particular game and all the circumstances surrounding it.

A must for any serious football handicapper is to make your own lines and capitalize on perceived errors to the set lines. By making your own lines, you automatically have your best bet of the weekend after comparing your figures to the Vegas set lines. The biggest discrepancy in the lines should be your biggest play of the weekend. Be careful to double check such things as injury report, coaching or personal changes, and weather etc., before jumping right in, as you want to ensure your selection is based on all the facts and ensure the oddsmakers don’t know something you aren’t aware of.